The Year Motorcycle COE Hit $13,000: What Really Happened to Category D

The Quiet Category That Exploded

Category D — motorcycles — is usually the quietest corner of the COE market. Media coverage focuses almost exclusively on Cat A and Cat B, and the average Singaporean could not tell you what a motorcycle COE costs. But in 2022, Cat D staged one of the most dramatic moves in COE history, breaching $13,000 in November — a level that nobody in the motorcycle community had ever anticipated.

This is not the story that was widely reported at the time. Much of the coverage got key details wrong, conflating the 2022 spike with earlier Cat D fluctuations and misidentifying the causes. Here is what actually happened, supported by LTA bidding data and industry analysis.

The Numbers: A Timeline of Category D

To understand the 2022 spike, you need to see it in the context of Cat D's full history. View the data yourself on our historical trends page.

The Baseline Years (2010–2019)

For most of the 2010s, Cat D premiums traded in a range that motorcycle buyers considered tolerable, if not exactly cheap. The pattern was:

• 2010–2012: $1,000–$3,000. Post-GFC recovery brought gradually rising prices
• 2013: Average Cat D around $1,757. This was the year car COEs hit $92,000, but motorcycle premiums remained modest
• 2014: LTA implemented a 30% reduction in Cat D quotas, setting the stage for future supply crunches
• April 2015: Cat D hit $6,801 — a record at the time, driven by the quota cut taking full effect
• 2016–2019: Premiums settled back to the $3,000–$5,000 range as the market adjusted to the new, tighter supply

The COVID Disruption (2020–2021)

COVID changed everything for Category D. The Circuit Breaker lockdown in April 2020 — which suspended COE bidding for the first time ever — compressed motorcycle quotas alongside car quotas. But the motorcycle market experienced a demand shock that car categories did not: the food delivery revolution.

As restaurants closed their doors to dine-in customers, services like GrabFood and Foodpanda experienced explosive growth. Delivery riders needed motorcycles. What had been a niche commercial use became a mainstream economic activity almost overnight. Thousands of workers who had never previously considered motorcycle ownership were suddenly in the market for bikes — and by extension, for Cat D COEs.

By late 2021, Cat D premiums had climbed past $7,000 and were accelerating.

The 2022 Spike: Breaching $13,000

In November 2022, Category D premiums breached $13,000 — the highest level in the category's entire history. The previous record of $6,801 from April 2015 was nearly doubled. To an outside observer, a $13,000 motorcycle COE might sound manageable compared to $100,000+ car COEs. To the motorcycle community, it was a catastrophe.

What Caused the Spike: Four Converging Forces

1. The Food Delivery Boom

This was the single largest demand-side driver. Before COVID, motorcycle demand was primarily from two groups: enthusiasts who rode for recreation, and daily commuters who used bikes to navigate Singapore's congested roads cheaply. The delivery boom created a third, enormous group: commercial riders who needed motorcycles as income-producing assets.

GrabFood, Foodpanda, and Deliveroo collectively employed tens of thousands of delivery riders across Singapore. For these workers, a motorcycle was not a lifestyle choice — it was essential equipment. They bid aggressively for COEs because their livelihood depended on having a registered bike. This was fundamentally different from recreational demand, which could be deferred. Delivery demand was urgent and inelastic.

The shift was visible in registration data: the proportion of new motorcycle registrations associated with commercial use increased sharply between 2020 and 2022. Motorcycles that were once the domain of weekend riders and budget commuters had become commercial vehicles in all but regulatory classification.

2. The 0% Vehicle Growth Rate

Singapore's vehicle growth rate policy is the master variable in the COE equation. When the government sets a 0% growth rate — meaning the total vehicle population is not allowed to increase — the only new COEs available come from deregistered vehicles. If fewer vehicles are scrapped, fewer new certificates are generated. Track the quota allocations on our quota page.

For Category D, the 0% growth rate was particularly punishing. Motorcycle owners tend to hold their bikes for the full 10-year COE period because the residual value of motorcycles is low and the cost of renewal (via the Prevailing Quota Premium) is often less than the cost of buying a new bike plus a new COE. This meant fewer deregistrations, fewer replacement certificates, and a progressively shrinking quota.

Cat D's absolute quota numbers tell the story: by 2022, the number of available motorcycle certificates per bidding round had fallen to its lowest level in years. When you combine shrinking supply with surging delivery demand, the arithmetic produces exactly what happened — a price explosion.

3. The Smallest Category = Maximum Volatility

Category D has the smallest absolute quota of any COE category. In a typical bidding round, there might be only a few hundred motorcycle certificates available, compared to thousands for Cat A or Cat B. This structural feature makes Cat D the most volatile category in the system.

In a large, liquid market like Cat A, a few hundred extra bidders in a round are noise. In Cat D, a few hundred extra bidders can double the demand-to-supply ratio overnight. The food delivery boom did not just add a few hundred bidders — it added thousands over multiple quarters. In a category with a quota measured in hundreds, this was an overwhelming supply-demand mismatch.

This is a structural vulnerability that affects Cat D more than any other category. Small quotas amplify demand shocks in both directions: prices spike faster on the way up and can collapse faster on the way down. Understanding the quota mechanics is essential for anyone tracking Cat D.

4. Cross-Category Spillover Effects

As car COEs surged toward and past $80,000 in 2022, some potential car buyers reconsidered their transport needs. For certain use cases — particularly single commuters without family transport requirements — a motorcycle at $13,000 was still dramatically cheaper than a car at $80,000+. This cross-category substitution effect added car-buyer budgets to the motorcycle bidding pool.

The spillover was not enormous in absolute numbers, but in a small-quota category, even a modest influx of higher-budget bidders can move prices significantly. Some industry observers estimated that 10–15% of Cat D bidders in 2022 were individuals who had originally intended to buy a car but pivoted to motorcycles as car COEs became prohibitive.

The Human Cost

For motorcycle enthusiasts and daily commuters, the $13,000 COE was devastating. Consider the economics: a typical 2B-class motorcycle (the most common category for new riders) costs $3,000–$5,000 for the bike itself. At $13,000, the COE cost three to four times the price of the vehicle. It was as if a $50,000 car came with a $150,000–$200,000 registration fee.

Delivery riders were particularly hard hit. For a worker earning $2,000–$3,000 per month from food deliveries, a $13,000 COE represented four to six months of gross income — spent on a piece of paper before they could earn a single dollar. Many riders turned to older, cheaper secondhand bikes with shorter remaining COE periods, accepting higher maintenance costs to avoid the new-COE premium.

The motorcycle community responded with frustration. Forums on Bikemart and Motorist.sg were filled with calls for LTA to create a separate quota for commercial motorcycles or to implement anti-speculation measures specific to Cat D. None of these proposals gained policy traction.

The Aftermath and Current State

Cat D premiums have moderated since the November 2022 peak but remain elevated by historical standards. As of March 2026, Cat D sits at approximately $9,589 — down from the $13,000 high but still far above the sub-$5,000 levels that prevailed through most of the 2010s.

Several factors have contributed to the partial cooling:

• Delivery market maturation: The explosive growth phase of food delivery has plateaued. Rider numbers have stabilised, reducing the acute demand pressure that drove the 2022 spike
• Economic normalisation: As COVID-era disruptions faded, buying patterns returned closer to historical norms
• Renewed COE awareness: The 2022 spike prompted more riders to time their bids strategically rather than bidding at any price

However, the structural factors that enabled the spike remain: the 0% growth rate, the small Cat D quota, and the ongoing commercial use of motorcycles for delivery services. Another demand shock — whether from a new gig economy category, regulatory changes, or economic stimulus — could produce a similar price surge.

Lessons from the Cat D Spike

The 2022 motorcycle COE story offers five lessons that apply beyond Category D:

• Small categories are structurally volatile: Cat D has the smallest quota, making it the most susceptible to sharp moves from relatively small demand changes. A demand shift that would barely register in Cat A can double Cat D prices
• New demand sources are unpredictable: Nobody forecasting COE prices in 2019 included "food delivery revolution" in their models. Yet this single factor was the largest demand driver in Cat D's 2022 spike
• Cross-category effects matter: When car COEs become prohibitive, demand does not disappear — it migrates to cheaper categories. Cat D absorbed some of the demand that was priced out of Cat A and Cat B
• The 0% growth rate is a loaded spring: With no population growth allowed, any demand increase translates directly into price increases. There is no supply buffer to absorb shocks
• Cat D is the canary in the coal mine: Because of its small quota and high volatility, Cat D often signals broader market trends before they appear in car categories. The 2022 motorcycle spike presaged the car COE surge that followed

What to Watch Going Forward

For those tracking Category D, the key indicators are:

• Quarterly quota announcements: Any further tightening of Cat D quotas would immediately reignite price pressure. Monitor our quota page for updates
• Delivery market employment data: A resurgence in delivery rider numbers would add demand to an already constrained category
• Vehicle growth rate policy: If the government raises the growth rate for motorcycles specifically, it would provide meaningful supply relief
• Deregistration rates: More motorcycles being scrapped means more replacement certificates. Falling deregistration rates tighten supply further

Category D may be the smallest and least-discussed COE category, but its 2022 spike was a masterclass in supply-demand dynamics. For anyone trying to understand how the COE system works — and how it can break — the motorcycle market is the most instructive case study available.

Track all categories including Cat D on our historical trends page, and set up price alerts to monitor the next move.