COE Supply Forecast

Track quota allocations, deregistration trends, and supply-demand dynamics that influence COE prices.

Current Quarter Metrics

Cat A Quarterly Supply

1,265

1,265 per exercise

-83.5% vs prev quarter

Avg monthly deregistrations

0

Cat B Quarterly Supply

811

811 per exercise

-83.4% vs prev quarter

Avg monthly deregistrations

0

Cat C Quarterly Supply

295

295 per exercise

-83.0% vs prev quarter

Avg monthly deregistrations

0

Cat D Quarterly Supply

534

534 per exercise

-83.7% vs prev quarter

Avg monthly deregistrations

0

Cat E Quarterly Supply

245

245 per exercise

-84.5% vs prev quarter

Avg monthly deregistrations

0

Quota Allocation History (Last 8 Quarters)

Data sourced from LTA · Updated quarterly

View data as table
Current quarter quota allocation by category
Category Quarterly Supply Per Exercise Change vs Prev
Cat A 1,265 1,265 -83.5%
Cat B 811 811 -83.4%
Cat C 295 295 -83.0%
Cat D 534 534 -83.7%
Cat E 245 245 -84.5%

Deregistration Trends (Last 24 Months)

Deregistrations drive future quota supply · More deregistrations = more COEs available

View data as table
Average monthly deregistrations by category
Category Avg Monthly Deregistrations
Cat A 0
Cat B 0
Cat C 0
Cat D 0
Cat E 0

New Registrations — Demand Side (Last 24 Months)

New registrations indicate demand for COEs · Higher registrations = stronger demand pressure

COE Revalidations (Last 24 Months)

Owners who renew COEs reduce the pool of available quotas · 5-year vs 10-year renewal

Vehicle Population by Category (Last 24 Months)

Total vehicles on road by VQS category · Provides context for quota sizing

How COE Supply Works

The Land Transport Authority (LTA) determines COE quotas quarterly based on three factors:

  • Deregistrations — vehicles taken off the road create replacement COEs
  • Growth allowance — a small percentage (currently 0%) set by the government
  • Adjustments — corrections for under/over-issuance in previous quarters

More deregistrations generally lead to higher quota supply, which can put downward pressure on COE prices — all else being equal.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will COE quotas increase in the next quarter?
Quota changes depend primarily on deregistration volumes. If more vehicles are being scrapped or exported than the previous quarter, the quota is likely to increase. Check the deregistration trends chart above for the latest trajectory, and compare against previous quarter allocations.
What factors drive deregistrations?
The biggest driver is 10-year COE expiries — owners must decide whether to renew, scrap, or export. High PQP renewal costs, expensive maintenance on ageing vehicles, and attractive scrap values all encourage deregistration. Economic downturns can also accelerate the decision.
How do COE revalidations affect supply?
When an owner renews their COE at the PQP, that vehicle stays on the road without freeing up a quota slot. High revalidation rates reduce the number of replacement COEs available, tightening supply. The revalidation chart above shows this trend.
Why does vehicle population data matter?
The total vehicle population provides context for quota sizing. A stable population with 0% growth means every new registration requires a deregistration elsewhere. Tracking population by category helps identify where supply pressure is building — or easing.

Explore More

Results Archive

Browse all COE bidding results

Price Trends

Track COE price movements over time

Compare Categories

Side-by-side category analysis

Welcome back!

View latest