Quota Watch
COE quotas are determined quarterly by LTA based on vehicle deregistrations, projected growth, and adjustments. A larger quota generally means more COEs available, which can moderate prices. Track how quota allocations change over time and how they affect COE supply and demand.
Data sourced from LTA · Updated quarterly
Current Quarter Allocation
1,265 per exercise
811 per exercise
295 per exercise
534 per exercise
245 per exercise
Quarterly Quota Comparison
| Quarter | Cat A | Cat B | Cat C | Cat D | Cat E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 | 1,265 | 811 | 295 | 534 | 245 |
| 2026 Q1 | 7,672 | 4,880 | 1,736 | 3,271 | 1,578 |
| 2025 Q4 | 7,692 | 4,885 | 1,687 | 3,212 | 1,645 |
| 2025 Q3 | 7,585 | 4,728 | 1,684 | 3,225 | 1,453 |
| 2025 Q2 | 7,340 | 4,678 | 1,616 | 3,179 | 1,238 |
| 2025 Q1 | 6,672 | 4,367 | 1,540 | 3,148 | 1,178 |
| 2024 Q4 | 6,205 | 4,080 | 1,428 | 3,122 | 1,088 |
| 2024 Q3 | 5,904 | 4,009 | 1,295 | 3,117 | 1,057 |
Recent Deregistrations
Deregistrations feed into the quota calculation. Higher deregistrations typically lead to larger future quotas.
| Month | Cat A | Cat B | Cat C | Cat D | Cat E | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | 2,337 | 1,807 | 499 | 593 | — | 5,236 |
| Jan 2026 | 2,978 | 2,303 | 621 | 925 | — | 6,827 |
Quota Allocation Trends
Quarterly quota allocations over the last 2 years by category.
View data as table
| Category | Total Quota | Per Exercise | Change vs Prev |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cat A | 1,265 | 1,265 | -83.51% |
| Cat B | 811 | 811 | -83.38% |
| Cat C | 295 | 295 | -83.01% |
| Cat D | 534 | 534 | -83.67% |
| Cat E | 245 | 245 | -84.47% |
How COE Quotas Are Determined
The COE quota is the single biggest supply-side driver of prices. Each quarter, LTA calculates how many certificates to release based on deregistrations from the previous period, plus any adjustments for over- or under-issuance. Since the vehicle growth rate has been capped at 0% since 2018, virtually all new COEs come from replacements.
This means deregistration waves have an outsized effect on prices. When a large cohort of vehicles reaches its 10-year COE expiry, the resulting deregistrations temporarily inflate the quota, often moderating prices for 2-3 years. Conversely, periods of low deregistration — like after a purchasing slump — tighten supply and push premiums up.
Monitor the supply forecast for deregistration trends and upcoming quota projections. For how quota changes translate into price movements, see the price trends page.