March 2026 COE Results Analysis

March 2026 First Bidding Overview

The first COE bidding exercise for March 2026, which closed on 5 March, produced the following premiums:

The standout story from this round is not any single number but the relationship between Category A and Category B. While Cat B is nominally the higher-powered, more expensive category, the premium gap has narrowed to an extent that challenges the fundamental logic of the two-tier car classification system.

February’s Historic Inversion

To understand why the March results matter, you need to know what happened in February. In the February 2026 first bidding exercise, Cat A actually exceeded Cat B for the first time in the COE system’s modern history: $106,501 for Cat A versus $105,001 for Cat B. A category designed for small, affordable cars was momentarily more expensive than the one covering luxury sedans and performance vehicles.

That inversion lasted only one round—by the March exercise, Cat B had reasserted its traditional position above Cat A by roughly $5,800. But the fact that it happened at all sent shockwaves through the industry. It demonstrated that the demand pressures in Cat A, driven overwhelmingly by the EV boom, are now powerful enough to overwhelm what was once a reliable price hierarchy.

The Category Convergence Problem

For most of the COE system’s existence, Category B premiums have traded at a comfortable premium to Category A. The logic was straightforward: bigger, more powerful cars cost more to buy and are typically purchased by wealthier buyers, so the willingness to pay for a Cat B certificate should be higher. That orthodoxy has broken down over the past two years, and the March results show the new normal is one of near-parity.

Why Cat A Caught Up

Three forces have pushed Cat A premiums toward—and occasionally above—Cat B levels:

• EV demand concentration: Electric vehicles made up 45.6% of Category A registrations in the first nine months of 2025. Because most affordable EVs have power outputs engineered to fall just under the 130 bhp Cat A threshold, a flood of new demand has entered a category with limited supply. The total addressable market for Cat A has effectively doubled while the monthly quota of 1,264 certificates has barely moved.
• Manufacturer power-tuning: Of the 38 EV models registered under Cat A, at least 15 have a Cat B variant—meaning the manufacturer has deliberately tuned the power output down to qualify for Cat A. This strategic behaviour funnels buyers who might otherwise have bid in Cat B into the smaller category’s pool. It is rational for each individual manufacturer but collectively destructive for Cat A pricing.
• Broader buyer pool: Cat A’s affordability ceiling is lower, but the sheer volume of mass-market buyers competing for certificates creates intense demand. Cat B, by contrast, serves a smaller but wealthier cohort whose demand is somewhat more elastic—when premiums rise sharply, some Cat B buyers delay or switch to used cars, whereas Cat A demand tends to be stickier because buyers have fewer alternatives.

Government Response: The LTA Category Review

On 4 March 2026—just one day before this bidding exercise closed—Acting Transport Minister Jeffrey Siow announced that LTA will undertake a comprehensive review of COE categorisation. While specific proposals have not yet been released, the announcement signals that the government recognises the distortions caused by EVs in the current framework.

Possible adjustments that industry observers have speculated about include:

• Raising the Cat A power threshold above 130 bhp to accommodate more EVs without penalising mass-market buyers. This would reduce the incentive for power-tuning but could push Cat A premiums even higher if the enlarged category attracts more bidders than it gains in quota.
• Introducing a dedicated EV category to separate electric and internal combustion demand entirely. This would be the most radical change but also the most complex to implement, requiring a new quota allocation formula and potentially a transition period for existing registrations.
• Using a composite metric such as kerb weight combined with power output, instead of a single power or engine capacity criterion. This approach would be harder for manufacturers to game because reducing one variable (power) might increase another (weight).

Any changes are unlikely to take effect before late 2026 at the earliest, given the need for public consultation and system reconfiguration. In the meantime, the current dynamics are expected to persist, and the March results should be read as a preview of the quarters ahead rather than an anomaly.

Category B and E: A Closer Look

Cat B premiums jumped to $114,002 in this exercise, an $8,001 increase from the February second bidding round. While overshadowed by the Cat A convergence story, this is a significant move in absolute terms and the largest single-round increase Cat B has seen since mid-2025. The jump appears driven by a combination of pent-up demand from the Chinese New Year period and continued interest in mid-range SUVs and crossovers that straddle the Cat A/B boundary.

Cat E (Open) closed at $114,890, trading just above Cat B as is typical. Open certificates can be used for any vehicle, so they command a small premium for their flexibility. When the Cat A/Cat B spread is narrow, Cat E becomes particularly attractive because buyers face less regret risk—the cost of maintaining flexibility is lower. We would not be surprised to see Cat E premiums climb further in coming months as the category review adds uncertainty about future classification.

Category C and D

Goods vehicles and buses (Cat C) saw premiums close at $76,000, a level that reflects steady commercial demand. The commercial sector is less price-sensitive than private buyers because vehicle costs are a business expense, often amortised over longer operational periods and, in many cases, eligible for tax deductions. The 0.25% vehicle growth rate for Cat C provides a modest supply buffer that the car categories lack.

Motorcycle COEs (Cat D) remained affordable at $8,602. While this figure has crept higher over the past year, it remains an order of magnitude below car categories. The motorcycle market operates on a fundamentally different demand dynamic, with lower price points and a buyer profile that is less sensitive to wealth effects.

What the Numbers Mean for Buyers

With Cat A above $108K and Cat B above $114K, the on-road price of even a modest new car is firmly in six-figure territory. A Toyota Corolla Altis 1.6, one of Singapore’s perennial best-sellers, currently lists at around S$162,888 on-road. That price bakes in a Cat A COE premium of roughly $108K-$112K depending on the bidding round, plus ARF, registration fees, and dealer margin.

For buyers weighing their options, the convergence of Cat A and Cat B premiums has an unexpected practical implication: the incremental cost of stepping up from a small car to a larger one is now lower than ever, since the COE component—often the single largest line item—is nearly identical across both categories. If you are comparing a Cat A sedan to a Cat B SUV, the premium difference may be only $3,000-$6,000 rather than the $20K-$50K gaps seen in previous years. Use our Total Cost Calculator to compare scenarios side by side.

Tracking the Trend

We update our Results Archive after every bidding exercise and maintain long-term historical charts so you can visualise price movements over months and years. The trend lines clearly show the convergence of Cat A and Cat B beginning in late 2024 and accelerating through 2025 into 2026.

To understand the underlying quota mechanics driving these results, visit our Quota Watch dashboard, which shows how certificate allocations have evolved quarter by quarter. If you are trying to forecast where premiums might head next, our Prediction Game lets you test your instincts against the community consensus.

For a full explanation of how the COE bidding system works, including the uniform-price auction mechanism and the relationship between bids submitted and the final clearing price, see our What Is COE? guide.

Outlook for the Rest of March and Beyond

The second bidding exercise closed on 19 March with Cat A at $111,890, Cat B at $115,568, Cat C at $78,000, Cat D at $9,589, and Cat E at $118,119. Every category rose from the first exercise, confirming that demand momentum remained strong throughout the month.

These second-round figures confirmed the bullish momentum evident in the first exercise and suggest that underlying demand remains robust across all vehicle segments.

Looking ahead to Q2, the Feb-Apr 2026 quota of 18,824 total certificates provides no supply relief. The Budget 2026 PARF changes (reduced rates, $30,000 cap from 13 February) may encourage some early deregistrations among owners of high-OMV cars, adding modestly to the replacement certificate pool. But any such effect will take months to materialise fully.

The category review remains the most significant potential catalyst for change. Until new rules are announced, expect Cat A to remain in the $108K-$115K band and Cat B to hover between $114K and $118K. Set up Price Alerts for your target category so you are ready to act when conditions shift.