2026 COE Outlook: Evidence, Supply Changes and Scenario Planning
Review the 2026 results available by 13 September and build price scenarios without presenting unsupported forecasts as a market model.
By the first September 2026 exercise, Category A had reached $133,009 and Category B $135,001. That is the observed position at this article’s September review, not a forecast made at the beginning of the year.
| Category | Exercises | Minimum | Mean premium | Maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 18 | S$102,009 | S$119,812 | S$133,009 |
| B | 18 | S$105,001 | S$123,562 | S$135,001 |
| C | 18 | S$74,801 | S$85,577 | S$95,000 |
| D | 18 | S$7,989 | S$9,856 | S$12,556 |
| E | 18 | S$112,890 | S$125,953 | S$137,890 |
Arithmetic mean across available exercises; no weighting by quota. Missing exercises are not invented. This table updates when a source record is corrected.
The September period is incomplete as of 13 September. The table includes available completed exercises only. It must not be described as a full-year result or compared with a complete year without that qualification.
What is known about supply
LTA announced the progressive injection of up to about 20,000 additional COEs across vehicle categories over several years, starting in February 2025. “Up to,” the multi-year period and category allocation all matter. This is not 20,000 additional car certificates available in a single 2026 quarter.
The May–July 2026 allocation was 19,052 across all categories, compared with 18,824 in February–April. A’s allocation fell while B’s rose. Use the category breakdown rather than treating a total increase as equal relief for every buyer.
Policy announcements and unresolved questions
The current category rules remain the basis for buying and bidding. A category review is not an approved new EV category. Published incentive schedules affect registration costs, but do not determine an exact auction response.
Use scenarios with explicit assumptions
Take an actual package and examine what happens if its final price is $10,000 lower, unchanged or $10,000 higher. If holding every other component constant, those changes alter the purchase commitment by the same amounts. A package contract may absorb or pass through only part of a COE movement, so verify its terms.
Include loan interest, waiting costs and the trade-in offer. State the assumptions without assigning probabilities that have not been estimated and tested.
What this outlook does not claim
The earlier precise future quota and premium ranges lacked a documented forecasting model and have been withdrawn. The available evidence does not establish a permanent six-figure floor or promise an imminent crash. A usable outlook explains what would change the decision, then updates when verified results arrive.
Sources and review date
Reviewed on 13 September 2026. Historical results retain their exercise dates; worked budgets are assumptions, not quotations.