COE Supply Forecast
Track quota allocations, deregistration trends, and supply-demand dynamics that influence COE prices.
Current Quarter Metrics
Category A
Quarterly Supply
7,300
1,217 per exercise
-3.5% vs prev quarter
Avg monthly deregistrations
3,028
Avg monthly registrations
2,516
Category B
Quarterly Supply
5,461
910 per exercise
+6.1% vs prev quarter
Avg monthly deregistrations
2,417
Avg monthly registrations
2,219
Category C
Quarterly Supply
1,846
308 per exercise
+5.3% vs prev quarter
Avg monthly deregistrations
835
Category D
Quarterly Supply
3,161
527 per exercise
-1.5% vs prev quarter
Avg monthly deregistrations
718
Avg monthly registrations
1,022
Category E
Quarterly Supply
1,617
270 per exercise
+6.5% vs prev quarter
Avg monthly deregistrations
0
Quota Allocation History (Last 8 Quarters)
View data as table
| Date | Category | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | Cat A | 6,205.00 |
| 2025 Q1 | Cat A | 6,672.00 |
| 2025 Q2 | Cat A | 7,340.00 |
| 2025 Q3 | Cat A | 7,585.00 |
| 2025 Q4 | Cat A | 7,692.00 |
| 2026 Q1 | Cat A | 7,672.00 |
| 2026 Q2 | Cat A | 7,567.00 |
| 2026 Q3 | Cat A | 7,300.00 |
| 2024 Q4 | Cat B | 4,080.00 |
| 2025 Q1 | Cat B | 4,367.00 |
| 2025 Q2 | Cat B | 4,678.00 |
| 2025 Q3 | Cat B | 4,728.00 |
| 2025 Q4 | Cat B | 4,885.00 |
| 2026 Q1 | Cat B | 4,880.00 |
| 2026 Q2 | Cat B | 5,146.00 |
| 2026 Q3 | Cat B | 5,461.00 |
| 2024 Q4 | Cat C | 1,428.00 |
| 2025 Q1 | Cat C | 1,540.00 |
| 2025 Q2 | Cat C | 1,616.00 |
| 2025 Q3 | Cat C | 1,684.00 |
| 2025 Q4 | Cat C | 1,687.00 |
| 2026 Q1 | Cat C | 1,736.00 |
| 2026 Q2 | Cat C | 1,754.00 |
| 2026 Q3 | Cat C | 1,846.00 |
| 2024 Q4 | Cat D | 3,122.00 |
| 2025 Q1 | Cat D | 3,148.00 |
| 2025 Q2 | Cat D | 3,179.00 |
| 2025 Q3 | Cat D | 3,225.00 |
| 2025 Q4 | Cat D | 3,212.00 |
| 2026 Q1 | Cat D | 3,271.00 |
| 2026 Q2 | Cat D | 3,208.00 |
| 2026 Q3 | Cat D | 3,161.00 |
| 2024 Q4 | Cat E | 1,088.00 |
| 2025 Q1 | Cat E | 1,178.00 |
| 2025 Q2 | Cat E | 1,238.00 |
| 2025 Q3 | Cat E | 1,453.00 |
| 2025 Q4 | Cat E | 1,645.00 |
| 2026 Q1 | Cat E | 1,578.00 |
| 2026 Q2 | Cat E | 1,519.00 |
| 2026 Q3 | Cat E | 1,617.00 |
Data sourced from LTA · Updated quarterly
Deregistration Trends (Last 24 Months)
View data as table
| Date | Category | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | Cat A | 1,906.00 |
| Nov 2024 | Cat A | 1,421.00 |
| Dec 2024 | Cat A | 1,973.00 |
| Jan 2025 | Cat A | 2,072.00 |
| Feb 2025 | Cat A | 1,704.00 |
| Mar 2025 | Cat A | 2,070.00 |
| Apr 2025 | Cat A | 1,964.00 |
| May 2025 | Cat A | 2,112.00 |
| Jun 2025 | Cat A | 2,288.00 |
| Jul 2025 | Cat A | 2,191.00 |
| Aug 2025 | Cat A | 2,891.00 |
| Sep 2025 | Cat A | 2,263.00 |
| Oct 2025 | Cat A | 2,672.00 |
| Nov 2025 | Cat A | 2,311.00 |
| Dec 2025 | Cat A | 2,677.00 |
| Jan 2026 | Cat A | 2,978.00 |
| Feb 2026 | Cat A | 2,337.00 |
| Mar 2026 | Cat A | 3,343.00 |
| Apr 2026 | Cat A | 3,275.00 |
| May 2026 | Cat A | 3,588.00 |
| Jun 2026 | Cat A | 3,415.00 |
| Jul 2026 | Cat A | 3,091.00 |
| Aug 2026 | Cat A | 2,964.00 |
| Oct 2024 | Cat B | 1,481.00 |
| Nov 2024 | Cat B | 1,391.00 |
| Dec 2024 | Cat B | 1,541.00 |
| Jan 2025 | Cat B | 1,533.00 |
| Feb 2025 | Cat B | 1,496.00 |
| Mar 2025 | Cat B | 1,746.00 |
| Apr 2025 | Cat B | 1,874.00 |
| May 2025 | Cat B | 1,935.00 |
| Jun 2025 | Cat B | 1,969.00 |
| Jul 2025 | Cat B | 1,870.00 |
| Aug 2025 | Cat B | 2,023.00 |
| Sep 2025 | Cat B | 1,974.00 |
| Oct 2025 | Cat B | 2,011.00 |
| Nov 2025 | Cat B | 1,877.00 |
| Dec 2025 | Cat B | 2,027.00 |
| Jan 2026 | Cat B | 2,303.00 |
| Feb 2026 | Cat B | 1,807.00 |
| Mar 2026 | Cat B | 2,516.00 |
| Apr 2026 | Cat B | 2,492.00 |
| May 2026 | Cat B | 2,806.00 |
| Jun 2026 | Cat B | 2,615.00 |
| Jul 2026 | Cat B | 2,449.00 |
| Aug 2026 | Cat B | 2,385.00 |
| Oct 2024 | Cat C | 816.00 |
| Nov 2024 | Cat C | 478.00 |
| Dec 2024 | Cat C | 514.00 |
| Jan 2025 | Cat C | 517.00 |
| Feb 2025 | Cat C | 543.00 |
| Mar 2025 | Cat C | 1,120.00 |
| Apr 2025 | Cat C | 652.00 |
| May 2025 | Cat C | 556.00 |
| Jun 2025 | Cat C | 676.00 |
| Jul 2025 | Cat C | 696.00 |
| Aug 2025 | Cat C | 877.00 |
| Sep 2025 | Cat C | 913.00 |
| Oct 2025 | Cat C | 759.00 |
| Nov 2025 | Cat C | 607.00 |
| Dec 2025 | Cat C | 997.00 |
| Jan 2026 | Cat C | 621.00 |
| Feb 2026 | Cat C | 499.00 |
| Mar 2026 | Cat C | 577.00 |
| Apr 2026 | Cat C | 566.00 |
| May 2026 | Cat C | 588.00 |
| Jun 2026 | Cat C | 729.00 |
| Jul 2026 | Cat C | 864.00 |
| Aug 2026 | Cat C | 805.00 |
| Oct 2024 | Cat D | 709.00 |
| Nov 2024 | Cat D | 531.00 |
| Dec 2024 | Cat D | 650.00 |
| Jan 2025 | Cat D | 710.00 |
| Feb 2025 | Cat D | 700.00 |
| Mar 2025 | Cat D | 758.00 |
| Apr 2025 | Cat D | 702.00 |
| May 2025 | Cat D | 694.00 |
| Jun 2025 | Cat D | 752.00 |
| Jul 2025 | Cat D | 768.00 |
| Aug 2025 | Cat D | 661.00 |
| Sep 2025 | Cat D | 632.00 |
| Oct 2025 | Cat D | 641.00 |
| Nov 2025 | Cat D | 547.00 |
| Dec 2025 | Cat D | 750.00 |
| Jan 2026 | Cat D | 925.00 |
| Feb 2026 | Cat D | 593.00 |
| Mar 2026 | Cat D | 626.00 |
| Apr 2026 | Cat D | 655.00 |
| May 2026 | Cat D | 616.00 |
| Jun 2026 | Cat D | 651.00 |
| Jul 2026 | Cat D | 691.00 |
| Aug 2026 | Cat D | 745.00 |
Deregistrations drive future quota supply · More deregistrations = more COEs available
New Registrations — Demand Side (Last 24 Months)
View data as table
| Date | Category | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | Cat A | 1,939.00 |
| Nov 2024 | Cat A | 1,929.00 |
| Dec 2024 | Cat A | 2,928.00 |
| Jan 2025 | Cat A | 1,352.00 |
| Feb 2025 | Cat A | 2,429.00 |
| Mar 2025 | Cat A | 2,104.00 |
| Apr 2025 | Cat A | 2,106.00 |
| May 2025 | Cat A | 2,225.00 |
| Jun 2025 | Cat A | 2,571.00 |
| Jul 2025 | Cat A | 2,642.00 |
| Aug 2025 | Cat A | 2,757.00 |
| Sep 2025 | Cat A | 2,522.00 |
| Oct 2025 | Cat A | 2,110.00 |
| Nov 2025 | Cat A | 2,425.00 |
| Dec 2025 | Cat A | 3,418.00 |
| Jan 2026 | Cat A | 2,484.00 |
| Feb 2026 | Cat A | 2,334.00 |
| Mar 2026 | Cat A | 2,733.00 |
| Apr 2026 | Cat A | 2,527.00 |
| May 2026 | Cat A | 2,438.00 |
| Jun 2026 | Cat A | 2,708.00 |
| Jul 2026 | Cat A | 2,632.00 |
| Aug 2026 | Cat A | 2,400.00 |
| Oct 2024 | Cat B | 1,455.00 |
| Nov 2024 | Cat B | 1,645.00 |
| Dec 2024 | Cat B | 2,350.00 |
| Jan 2025 | Cat B | 1,335.00 |
| Feb 2025 | Cat B | 1,442.00 |
| Mar 2025 | Cat B | 2,217.00 |
| Apr 2025 | Cat B | 1,828.00 |
| May 2025 | Cat B | 2,208.00 |
| Jun 2025 | Cat B | 2,029.00 |
| Jul 2025 | Cat B | 1,961.00 |
| Aug 2025 | Cat B | 1,872.00 |
| Sep 2025 | Cat B | 2,145.00 |
| Oct 2025 | Cat B | 1,830.00 |
| Nov 2025 | Cat B | 1,938.00 |
| Dec 2025 | Cat B | 2,915.00 |
| Jan 2026 | Cat B | 1,747.00 |
| Feb 2026 | Cat B | 1,665.00 |
| Mar 2026 | Cat B | 2,302.00 |
| Apr 2026 | Cat B | 2,001.00 |
| May 2026 | Cat B | 2,023.00 |
| Jun 2026 | Cat B | 2,074.00 |
| Jul 2026 | Cat B | 2,299.00 |
| Aug 2026 | Cat B | 2,139.00 |
| Oct 2024 | Cat C | 270.00 |
| Nov 2024 | Cat C | 137.00 |
| Dec 2024 | Cat C | 173.00 |
| Jan 2025 | Cat C | 139.00 |
| Feb 2025 | Cat C | 148.00 |
| Mar 2025 | Cat C | 474.00 |
| Apr 2025 | Cat C | 123.00 |
| May 2025 | Cat C | 96.00 |
| Jun 2025 | Cat C | 75.00 |
| Jul 2025 | Cat C | 133.00 |
| Aug 2025 | Cat C | 179.00 |
| Sep 2025 | Cat C | 166.00 |
| Oct 2025 | Cat C | 160.00 |
| Nov 2025 | Cat C | 125.00 |
| Dec 2025 | Cat C | 257.00 |
| Jan 2026 | Cat C | 179.00 |
| Feb 2026 | Cat C | 0.00 |
| Mar 2026 | Cat C | 0.00 |
| Apr 2026 | Cat C | 0.00 |
| May 2026 | Cat C | 0.00 |
| Jun 2026 | Cat C | 0.00 |
| Jul 2026 | Cat C | 0.00 |
| Aug 2026 | Cat C | 0.00 |
| Oct 2024 | Cat D | 990.00 |
| Nov 2024 | Cat D | 998.00 |
| Dec 2024 | Cat D | 1,224.00 |
| Jan 2025 | Cat D | 912.00 |
| Feb 2025 | Cat D | 1,135.00 |
| Mar 2025 | Cat D | 1,029.00 |
| Apr 2025 | Cat D | 889.00 |
| May 2025 | Cat D | 1,164.00 |
| Jun 2025 | Cat D | 1,074.00 |
| Jul 2025 | Cat D | 1,024.00 |
| Aug 2025 | Cat D | 990.00 |
| Sep 2025 | Cat D | 1,226.00 |
| Oct 2025 | Cat D | 938.00 |
| Nov 2025 | Cat D | 1,030.00 |
| Dec 2025 | Cat D | 1,126.00 |
| Jan 2026 | Cat D | 1,112.00 |
| Feb 2026 | Cat D | 924.00 |
| Mar 2026 | Cat D | 1,262.00 |
| Apr 2026 | Cat D | 997.00 |
| May 2026 | Cat D | 1,046.00 |
| Jun 2026 | Cat D | 1,084.00 |
| Jul 2026 | Cat D | 1,122.00 |
| Aug 2026 | Cat D | 922.00 |
New registrations indicate demand for COEs · Higher registrations = stronger demand pressure
COE Revalidations (Last 24 Months)
View data as table
| Date | Category | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | 10-year | 803.00 |
| Nov 2024 | 10-year | 299.00 |
| Dec 2024 | 10-year | 525.00 |
| Jan 2025 | 10-year | 1,050.00 |
| Feb 2025 | 10-year | 706.00 |
| Mar 2025 | 10-year | 1,282.00 |
| Apr 2025 | 10-year | 895.00 |
| May 2025 | 10-year | 1,212.00 |
| Jun 2025 | 10-year | 566.00 |
| Jul 2025 | 10-year | 866.00 |
| Aug 2025 | 10-year | 1,205.00 |
| Sep 2025 | 10-year | 1,920.00 |
| Oct 2025 | 10-year | 977.00 |
| Nov 2025 | 10-year | 384.00 |
| Dec 2025 | 10-year | 544.00 |
| Jan 2026 | 10-year | 908.00 |
| Feb 2026 | 10-year | 874.00 |
| Mar 2026 | 10-year | 1,849.00 |
| Apr 2026 | 10-year | 2,006.00 |
| May 2026 | 10-year | 2,289.00 |
| Jun 2026 | 10-year | 955.00 |
| Jul 2026 | 10-year | 963.00 |
| Oct 2024 | 5-year | 1,702.00 |
| Nov 2024 | 5-year | 933.00 |
| Dec 2024 | 5-year | 1,001.00 |
| Jan 2025 | 5-year | 1,271.00 |
| Feb 2025 | 5-year | 895.00 |
| Mar 2025 | 5-year | 1,700.00 |
| Apr 2025 | 5-year | 1,570.00 |
| May 2025 | 5-year | 1,421.00 |
| Jun 2025 | 5-year | 1,177.00 |
| Jul 2025 | 5-year | 1,788.00 |
| Aug 2025 | 5-year | 2,895.00 |
| Sep 2025 | 5-year | 3,088.00 |
| Oct 2025 | 5-year | 2,233.00 |
| Nov 2025 | 5-year | 1,451.00 |
| Dec 2025 | 5-year | 1,687.00 |
| Jan 2026 | 5-year | 1,745.00 |
| Feb 2026 | 5-year | 1,718.00 |
| Mar 2026 | 5-year | 3,398.00 |
| Apr 2026 | 5-year | 3,968.00 |
| May 2026 | 5-year | 3,483.00 |
| Jun 2026 | 5-year | 2,131.00 |
| Jul 2026 | 5-year | 1,892.00 |
Owners who renew COEs reduce the pool of available quotas · 5-year vs 10-year renewal
Vehicle Population by Category (Last 24 Months)
View data as table
| Date | Category | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | Cat A | 320,148.00 |
| Nov 2024 | Cat A | 320,656.00 |
| Dec 2024 | Cat A | 321,611.00 |
| Jan 2025 | Cat A | 320,891.00 |
| Feb 2025 | Cat A | 321,616.00 |
| Mar 2025 | Cat A | 321,650.00 |
| Apr 2025 | Cat A | 321,792.00 |
| May 2025 | Cat A | 321,905.00 |
| Jun 2025 | Cat A | 322,188.00 |
| Jul 2025 | Cat A | 322,639.00 |
| Aug 2025 | Cat A | 322,505.00 |
| Sep 2025 | Cat A | 322,084.00 |
| Oct 2025 | Cat A | 321,522.00 |
| Nov 2025 | Cat A | 321,636.00 |
| Dec 2025 | Cat A | 322,377.00 |
| Jan 2026 | Cat A | 321,883.00 |
| Feb 2026 | Cat A | 321,880.00 |
| Mar 2026 | Cat A | 321,270.00 |
| Apr 2026 | Cat A | 320,522.00 |
| May 2026 | Cat A | 319,372.00 |
| Jun 2026 | Cat A | 318,665.00 |
| Jul 2026 | Cat A | 318,206.00 |
| Aug 2026 | Cat A | 317,642.00 |
| Oct 2024 | Cat B | 334,612.00 |
| Nov 2024 | Cat B | 334,866.00 |
| Dec 2024 | Cat B | 335,675.00 |
| Jan 2025 | Cat B | 335,477.00 |
| Feb 2025 | Cat B | 335,423.00 |
| Mar 2025 | Cat B | 335,894.00 |
| Apr 2025 | Cat B | 335,848.00 |
| May 2025 | Cat B | 336,121.00 |
| Jun 2025 | Cat B | 336,181.00 |
| Jul 2025 | Cat B | 336,272.00 |
| Aug 2025 | Cat B | 336,121.00 |
| Sep 2025 | Cat B | 336,292.00 |
| Oct 2025 | Cat B | 336,111.00 |
| Nov 2025 | Cat B | 336,172.00 |
| Dec 2025 | Cat B | 337,060.00 |
| Jan 2026 | Cat B | 336,504.00 |
| Feb 2026 | Cat B | 336,362.00 |
| Mar 2026 | Cat B | 336,148.00 |
| Apr 2026 | Cat B | 335,657.00 |
| May 2026 | Cat B | 334,874.00 |
| Jun 2026 | Cat B | 334,333.00 |
| Jul 2026 | Cat B | 334,183.00 |
| Aug 2026 | Cat B | 333,937.00 |
| Oct 2024 | Cat C | 152,875.00 |
| Nov 2024 | Cat C | 152,954.00 |
| Dec 2024 | Cat C | 153,040.00 |
| Jan 2025 | Cat C | 152,987.00 |
| Feb 2025 | Cat C | 153,096.00 |
| Mar 2025 | Cat C | 153,285.00 |
| Apr 2025 | Cat C | 153,118.00 |
| May 2025 | Cat C | 153,099.00 |
| Jun 2025 | Cat C | 153,027.00 |
| Jul 2025 | Cat C | 153,046.00 |
| Aug 2025 | Cat C | 152,841.00 |
| Sep 2025 | Cat C | 152,649.00 |
| Oct 2025 | Cat C | 152,555.00 |
| Nov 2025 | Cat C | 152,572.00 |
| Dec 2025 | Cat C | 152,383.00 |
| Jan 2026 | Cat C | 152,461.00 |
| Feb 2026 | Cat C | 152,426.00 |
| Mar 2026 | Cat C | 152,648.00 |
| Apr 2026 | Cat C | 152,740.00 |
| May 2026 | Cat C | 152,740.00 |
| Jun 2026 | Cat C | 152,534.00 |
| Jul 2026 | Cat C | 152,209.00 |
| Aug 2026 | Cat C | 151,895.00 |
| Oct 2024 | Cat D | 146,308.00 |
| Nov 2024 | Cat D | 146,775.00 |
| Dec 2024 | Cat D | 147,349.00 |
| Jan 2025 | Cat D | 147,551.00 |
| Feb 2025 | Cat D | 147,986.00 |
| Mar 2025 | Cat D | 148,257.00 |
| Apr 2025 | Cat D | 148,444.00 |
| May 2025 | Cat D | 148,914.00 |
| Jun 2025 | Cat D | 149,236.00 |
| Jul 2025 | Cat D | 149,492.00 |
| Aug 2025 | Cat D | 149,821.00 |
| Sep 2025 | Cat D | 150,415.00 |
| Oct 2025 | Cat D | 150,712.00 |
| Nov 2025 | Cat D | 151,195.00 |
| Dec 2025 | Cat D | 151,571.00 |
| Jan 2026 | Cat D | 151,758.00 |
| Feb 2026 | Cat D | 152,089.00 |
| Mar 2026 | Cat D | 152,725.00 |
| Apr 2026 | Cat D | 153,067.00 |
| May 2026 | Cat D | 153,497.00 |
| Jun 2026 | Cat D | 153,930.00 |
| Jul 2026 | Cat D | 154,361.00 |
| Aug 2026 | Cat D | 154,538.00 |
Total vehicles on road by VQS category · Provides context for quota sizing
How COE Supply Works
The Land Transport Authority (LTA) determines COE quotas quarterly based on three factors:
- Deregistrations — deregistrations over the applicable averaging window
- Growth allowance — the rate set for the relevant category and period
- Adjustments — the policy adjustments in the applicable LTA announcement
More deregistrations generally lead to higher quota supply, which can put downward pressure on COE prices — all else being equal.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will quotas increase next quarter?
The next published allocation depends on the applicable deregistration method, category growth policy and LTA adjustments. Recent data alone does not establish the next quota or premium.
What do deregistration figures measure?
They count vehicles removed from the register in the stated period. Expiry, renewal choices and other circumstances affect the figures, but the count alone cannot identify why owners deregistered.
How do revalidations affect supply?
A renewed vehicle remains registered instead of being deregistered then. Published quota calculations consider deregistrations over their specified window, together with other policy inputs. Renewal counts alone are not a complete quota formula.
Why compare vehicle population?
It provides context for the number and mix of registered vehicles. Growth policy varies by category and period; special adjustments mean it is unsafe to assume every new registration exactly offsets one deregistration.