LTA Announces Q2 2026 Quota Changes

Feb-Apr 2026 Quota at a Glance

The Land Transport Authority (LTA) confirmed the total Certificate of Entitlement quota for the February to April 2026 quarter at 18,824 certificates. That is roughly 1% below the preceding November 2025 to January 2026 period, which stood at 18,984. Compared with the August-October 2025 quarter of 18,701, the latest figure represents a marginal uptick but remains firmly in the sub-19,000 band that has characterised supply since late 2025.

For prospective car buyers, the headline number matters less than the per-category breakdown, because individual categories can move in different directions even when the total is flat. Here is where the certificates are going and what it means for each segment of the market.

Monthly Category Breakdown

The numbers above are monthly allocations. Over the three-month quarter they deliver roughly 3,792 Cat A certificates, 2,433 Cat B, 870 Cat C, and 717 Cat E. The remaining balance goes to Cat D motorcycles and minor adjustments.

Cat A’s monthly figure of 1,264 is worth dwelling on. That is approximately 42 certificates per calendar day serving a category that now attracts nearly half of all new car demand thanks to the surge in affordable electric vehicles. The mismatch between supply and demand in Cat A is the single most important dynamic in the COE market today.

Why the Quota Edged Lower

COE supply is driven by a formula that combines the allowable vehicle growth rate, replacement COEs from deregistrations, and adjustments for unallocated certificates. For the current period the vehicle population growth rate stands at 0% for Categories A, B, and D, while Category C enjoys a slightly higher 0.25% growth rate—a setting that holds until January 2028 under the current LTA framework.

Because Cat A and B growth is pegged at zero, new supply depends almost entirely on how many existing cars are scrapped or exported. When fewer owners deregister—often because they choose to renew their COE at the prevailing quota premium rather than pay today’s sky-high prices for a fresh car—the pool of replacement certificates shrinks.

This creates a self-reinforcing cycle. High premiums discourage scrapping, which reduces future supply, which keeps premiums high. Breaking the cycle requires either a policy intervention on the supply side or a demand shock that cools the market. Neither appears imminent.

The 20,000 Extra COEs

In February 2025 the government announced it would inject up to 20,000 additional COEs into the system over several years to ease persistent supply tightness. Some of those extra certificates have already begun flowing into the quarterly allocations. However, because the injection is spread across multiple years and distributed proportionally across categories, the per-quarter impact remains modest—enough to prevent the quota from falling further, but not enough to materially loosen the market.

To put the injection in context: 20,000 certificates spread over, say, four years works out to roughly 5,000 per year, or about 1,670 per quarter across all categories. Against a quarterly total of nearly 19,000, this is a meaningful but not transformative addition. It is more of a floor under supply than a ceiling-breaker.

You can track the quarterly quota history on our Quota Watch page to see how allocations have evolved over time.

Historical Context: Three Quarters Compared

Looking at the recent trend in total quarterly quotas provides useful context:

The pattern is one of remarkable stability, hovering within a narrow band. This stability is deceptive, however, because demand has not been stable. The EV boom has introduced thousands of new potential buyers into the market, particularly in Cat A, while supply has barely moved. The result is the persistent premium inflation we have seen throughout the first quarter of 2026.

What This Means for Q2 2026

The next quota period covering May to July 2026 will be announced in late April. Based on the current trajectory, market watchers broadly expect the total to land in a similar range—somewhere between 18,500 and 19,500—unless there is a sudden spike in deregistrations or the government accelerates the additional COE injection.

Factors to Watch

• Budget 2026 PARF changes: From 13 February 2026 the government reduced PARF rebate rates and capped them at $30,000, down from the previous $60,000 ceiling introduced in February 2023. Owners of high-OMV cars who were on the fence about deregistering may now accelerate their decision to lock in remaining rebate value before their PARF drops further with age. Each deregistration feeds a replacement certificate back into the system, so a wave of early scrappage could modestly boost the Q2 quota. Read our PARF and COE Rebates guide for a full explanation of the new rules.
• Category review: Acting Transport Minister Jeffrey Siow announced on 4 March 2026 that LTA will review COE categorisation. Any structural changes—for example, adjusting the power threshold that separates Cat A from Cat B—could redistribute demand across categories and alter quota dynamics significantly. While changes are unlikely to take effect in Q2, the announcement itself may influence buyer and dealer behaviour as the market positions for a potential shift.
• EV demand trajectory: Electric vehicles accounted for 45.6% of Cat A registrations in the first nine months of 2025. If that share continues to climb, the competitive pressure within Cat A will intensify regardless of the overall quota level. New EV model launches planned for mid-2026 could add further fuel to demand.
• Seasonal patterns: Historically, Q2 tends to see slightly softer demand than Q1 as the post-Chinese New Year buying rush subsides. This seasonal moderation could provide marginal relief, though in recent years it has been less pronounced as the market has become more competitive year-round.

How Quota Affects Premiums

The relationship between quota size and COE premiums is not perfectly linear. A small reduction in supply can translate into a disproportionately large jump in premiums when demand is strong, because the bidding system is a uniform-price auction—every successful bidder pays the lowest winning bid. When the margin between supply and demand narrows, a handful of additional bids can push the clearing price significantly higher.

In the March 2026 first bidding exercise, Cat A closed at $108,220 and Cat B at $114,002. By the second exercise on 19 March, Cat A had risen to $111,890 and Cat B to $115,568. These movements—a $3,670 swing in Cat A within a single month—occurred within the same quota period, illustrating how sensitive premiums are to short-term demand fluctuations even when supply is held constant. You can review the full history on our Results Archive.

The Open category (Cat E) is another useful barometer. At $114,890 to $118,119 in March, Cat E traded above Cat B, as is typical. Because Cat E certificates can be used for any vehicle, they attract demand from buyers hedging across categories. When the spread between Cat E and Cat B widens, it often signals rising uncertainty about future category dynamics—exactly the condition created by the upcoming LTA review.

Practical Advice for Buyers

If you are planning to buy a car in the coming months, here are some considerations based on the current quota environment:

• Budget conservatively. With Cat A premiums above $110K and Cat B above $115K, factor in a buffer of at least $5,000-$10,000 when setting your maximum bid. Use our Total Cost Calculator to model your all-in price including COE, ARF, insurance, road tax, and running costs.
• Watch the second bidding exercise. Historically the two exercises within a month can vary by several thousand dollars. Timing your bid to whichever round shows softer demand can save meaningful money. Our Results Archive lets you compare first and second exercise outcomes for every month.
• Set up alerts. Use our Price Alerts feature to get notified when premiums in your target category move above or below your threshold. In a market this volatile, real-time awareness is a genuine advantage.
• Consider the total ownership horizon. A higher COE premium today means a larger COE rebate if you deregister before the 10-year expiry. Model the full lifecycle cost, not just the upfront outlay. Our PARF Rebate Calculator can help you understand the deregistration value of your car at different ages.
• Factor in the category review. If you are weighing a power-tuned Cat A EV against a full-power Cat B variant, consider that LTA may redraw the category boundaries. A car that qualifies for Cat A today might be reclassified in the future, though existing registrations are typically grandfathered.

Looking Ahead

The Feb-Apr 2026 quota keeps supply in familiar territory: tight but stable. The real wildcard for Q2 and beyond is the category review flagged by the government. If the boundary between Cat A and Cat B is redrawn, current pricing dynamics could shift substantially. A wider Cat A threshold would ease pressure in that category but could push more demand into Cat B, potentially lifting premiums there.

We will update our Trends page as new data comes in, and publish a dedicated analysis once the Q2 quota figures are confirmed. For a primer on how the COE system works, see our What Is COE? guide. If you are new to Singapore, the Expat Guide covers the full car-buying process from a newcomer’s perspective. And for the key terms used in this article, consult our Glossary.