Best Time to Bid for COE: Month-by-Month Analysis
Every car buyer wants to bid when COE premiums are at their lowest. But is there actually a pattern to COE pricing throughout the year? We analysed ten years of Category A bidding data (2016-2025) to identify seasonal trends and determine whether timing your bid by month can save you money.
Methodology
For each month from January to December, we calculated the average Category A premium across all bidding exercises in that month, then expressed it as a percentage deviation from the full-year average. A positive percentage means the month is typically more expensive; negative means cheaper. We then ranked the months and tested the statistical significance of the patterns.
Monthly Premium Index: Category A (2016-2025 Average)
| Month | Avg Deviation from Annual Mean | Rank (1 = Cheapest) |
|---|---|---|
| January | -1.2% | 5 |
| February | +4.8% | 11 |
| March | +1.5% | 8 |
| April | -0.8% | 4 |
| May | -2.1% | 2 |
| June | -1.8% | 3 |
| July | -2.5% | 1 |
| August | -0.3% | 6 |
| September | +0.5% | 7 |
| October | +1.8% | 9 |
| November | +2.2% | 10 |
| December | +5.1% | 12 |
Key Findings
The Cheapest Window: May to July
The data clearly identifies the May-to-July window as the most favourable period for COE bidding. July stands out as the single cheapest month on average, with premiums running 2.5% below the annual mean. At current premium levels, a 2.5% saving on Category A equates to approximately $2,400. For Category B, the saving would be approximately $3,200.
Several factors contribute to the mid-year dip. The Chinese New Year demand surge has fully dissipated. Families are not under seasonal pressure to purchase. Dealer promotional activity tends to be lower between major holiday periods. Additionally, Q3 quotas — which incorporate the typically higher H1 deregistrations — are often slightly more generous than Q1 and Q2 quotas.
The Most Expensive Months: December and February
December is the most expensive month, with premiums averaging 5.1% above the annual mean. February is the second most expensive at +4.8%. These two months are driven by distinct but powerful demand forces: year-end rush in December (dealer targets, new-year psychology) and Chinese New Year in February (cultural timing, family purchases). Our dedicated analyses of the December rush and CNY effect explore these patterns in depth.
The Transition Months: April and August
April and August serve as transition months between the expensive and cheap periods. April sees the post-CNY fade, making it a reasonable second-choice window if you cannot wait until May-July. August marks the end of the cheap window as demand begins building toward the year-end.
How Much Can You Actually Save?
The difference between the cheapest month (July, -2.5%) and the most expensive (December, +5.1%) is 7.6%. At a Category A premium of $95,000, that translates to approximately $7,200. For Category B at $128,000, the difference is approximately $9,700.
These are averages across 10 years. In any individual year, the monthly pattern may be weaker or stronger, and structural trends (rising or falling markets) can dominate seasonal effects. However, the consistency of the pattern across a decade of data gives it statistical credibility.
Practical Timing Strategy
- If you can wait: Target May to July for the statistically cheapest window. Within this period, Round 1 of each month tends to be slightly cheaper than Round 2.
- If you need a car by year-end: Buy in September or early October. Prices are near the annual average, and you avoid the October-December ramp-up.
- Avoid: The two-week windows around Chinese New Year and mid-December unless urgency demands it.
- Use the Bid Advisor: Our Bid Advisor tool combines seasonal patterns with real-time bid ratio data to give you a current signal on whether conditions are favourable.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this pattern hold for Category B as well?Yes, the seasonal pattern is similar for Category B, though the magnitude differs. Category B shows a slightly smaller seasonal range (approximately 6% between cheapest and most expensive months) because its buyer base is less price-sensitive and less influenced by cultural timing. The cheapest months are still May-July, and the most expensive are still November-February.
What if the market is trending strongly upward or downward?Structural trends dominate seasonal patterns. If COE premiums are in a strong upward trend (as they were in 2021-2023), buying earlier is better than waiting for the "cheap" month because the trend more than offsets the seasonal advantage. Conversely, in a declining market, waiting always helps. The seasonal analysis is most useful in range-bound markets, which is where we appear to be in 2026.
Is Round 1 or Round 2 of each month cheaper?Over the 10-year dataset, Round 1 premiums are slightly lower than Round 2 premiums approximately 55% of the time. The difference is small — usually $500-$1,500 — and not statistically significant in most months. The exception is December, where Round 2 is consistently more expensive as the year-end deadline approaches.