Quota Outlook — 4-quarter supply projection
Where Singapore COE supply is heading across the next four quarters, category by category. Scenario projection, not a prediction.
Underlying data last updated:
Category A
| Quarter | Projected | Scenario range (±15%) |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 – Dec 2026 | 9,482 | 8,060 – 10,904 |
| Jan 2027 – Mar 2027 | 9,336 | 7,936 – 10,736 |
| Apr 2027 – Jun 2027 | 9,190 | 7,812 – 10,569 |
| Jul 2027 – Sep 2027 | 9,044 | 7,687 – 10,401 |
Inputs and assumptions
- Latest stored quarterly quota: 7,300 (period starts 1 Jul 2026).
- Deregistrations in the previous 12 complete calendar months: 34,914 from 12 monthly records.
- Scenario assumption: 25% of that annual count spread across 4 quarters.
- Baseline reduction per additional quarter: 2%. The first projected quarter has no reduction.
- Illustrative range: ±15%. This is not a statistical confidence interval.
Category B
| Quarter | Projected | Scenario range (±15%) |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 – Dec 2026 | 7,165 | 6,090 – 8,240 |
| Jan 2027 – Mar 2027 | 7,056 | 5,998 – 8,114 |
| Apr 2027 – Jun 2027 | 6,946 | 5,904 – 7,988 |
| Jul 2027 – Sep 2027 | 6,837 | 5,811 – 7,863 |
Inputs and assumptions
- Latest stored quarterly quota: 5,461 (period starts 1 Jul 2026).
- Deregistrations in the previous 12 complete calendar months: 27,262 from 12 monthly records.
- Scenario assumption: 25% of that annual count spread across 4 quarters.
- Baseline reduction per additional quarter: 2%. The first projected quarter has no reduction.
- Illustrative range: ±15%. This is not a statistical confidence interval.
Category C
| Quarter | Projected | Scenario range (±15%) |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 – Dec 2026 | 2,379 | 2,022 – 2,736 |
| Jan 2027 – Mar 2027 | 2,342 | 1,991 – 2,693 |
| Apr 2027 – Jun 2027 | 2,305 | 1,959 – 2,651 |
| Jul 2027 – Sep 2027 | 2,268 | 1,928 – 2,608 |
Inputs and assumptions
- Latest stored quarterly quota: 1,846 (period starts 1 Jul 2026).
- Deregistrations in the previous 12 complete calendar months: 8,525 from 12 monthly records.
- Scenario assumption: 25% of that annual count spread across 4 quarters.
- Baseline reduction per additional quarter: 2%. The first projected quarter has no reduction.
- Illustrative range: ±15%. This is not a statistical confidence interval.
Category D
| Quarter | Projected | Scenario range (±15%) |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 – Dec 2026 | 3,666 | 3,116 – 4,216 |
| Jan 2027 – Mar 2027 | 3,602 | 3,062 – 4,142 |
| Apr 2027 – Jun 2027 | 3,539 | 3,008 – 4,070 |
| Jul 2027 – Sep 2027 | 3,476 | 2,955 – 3,997 |
Inputs and assumptions
- Latest stored quarterly quota: 3,161 (period starts 1 Jul 2026).
- Deregistrations in the previous 12 complete calendar months: 8,072 from 12 monthly records.
- Scenario assumption: 25% of that annual count spread across 4 quarters.
- Baseline reduction per additional quarter: 2%. The first projected quarter has no reduction.
- Illustrative range: ±15%. This is not a statistical confidence interval.
Category E
Incomplete deregistration history: this scenario uses the available records only.
| Quarter | Projected | Scenario range (±15%) |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 – Dec 2026 | 1,617 | 1,374 – 1,860 |
| Jan 2027 – Mar 2027 | 1,585 | 1,347 – 1,823 |
| Apr 2027 – Jun 2027 | 1,552 | 1,319 – 1,785 |
| Jul 2027 – Sep 2027 | 1,520 | 1,292 – 1,748 |
Inputs and assumptions
- Latest stored quarterly quota: 1,617 (period starts 1 Jul 2026).
- Deregistrations in the previous 12 complete calendar months: 0 from 0 monthly records.
- Scenario assumption: 25% of that annual count spread across 4 quarters.
- Baseline reduction per additional quarter: 2%. The first projected quarter has no reduction.
- Illustrative range: ±15%. This is not a statistical confidence interval.
How this calculator works
This illustrative scenario starts from the latest stored quarterly quota. It adds 25% of deregistrations in the previous twelve complete calendar months, spread equally across 4 quarters. It reduces the original quota baseline by 2 percentage points per additional projected quarter; the first quarter has no reduction.
projected = baseline × (1 − drift_per_quarter × quarter_index)
+ trailing_12_month_deregistrations × annual_scenario_share / quarters_per_year
quarter_index = 0 for the first projected periodThe ±15% range is an illustrative sensitivity band. It is not fitted to historical errors, a probability interval or an assurance that actual quota will fall within it. The scenario formula is not the LTA quota-allocation formula; baseline quotas may already reflect deregistrations.
What this calculator does not capture
These assumptions are heuristic. They do not model demand, future policy, transfers between categories or the timing of deregistration recycling. Missing monthly records are disclosed rather than filled with invented data. Period labels follow the stored quota period, which may differ from calendar quarters. No projected quarter has a measured reliability advantage.
Frequently asked questions
- Is the displayed range a statistical confidence interval?
- No. It is an illustrative sensitivity range around the scenario. It is not calibrated to historical forecasting errors and does not assign probabilities to future quotas.
- Which deregistration records are included?
- The previous twelve complete calendar months are included. Current and future months are excluded, and incomplete history is explicitly flagged.