March 2026 Deregistrations: How They Feed into COE Supply
Read deregistrations separately from registrations and quota, and see why one month cannot determine the next COE allocation.
A deregistration removes a vehicle from the register. It is an input to the replacement-quota calculation, but one month’s deregistrations are not identical to the next month’s available COEs.
| Category | Deregistrations |
|---|---|
| A | 3,343 |
| B | 2,516 |
| C | 577 |
| D | 626 |
Deregistration records are distinct from quota allocations and new registrations. No replacement-COE forecast is implied.
Keep three datasets separate
Deregistrations count vehicles leaving the register. New registrations count vehicles entering it. Quota is the number of certificates allocated for bidding after the relevant calculation and adjustments. Their timing and category treatment differ.
The relevant replacement window
For the May–July 2026 allocation, LTA used deregistrations from April 2025 through March 2026. The calculation begins with 25% of effective deregistrations over that twelve-month window, with adjustments for identified guaranteed deregistrations and other components.
The published annex also shows contributions to Category E, allowable growth, taxi changes, Early Turnover Scheme adjustments and expired certificates. Simply multiplying March’s total by three would omit those rules.
Why a large monthly count needs context
Vehicle age distribution and renewal decisions can affect when deregistrations occur. The aggregate count does not reveal an owner’s income, motivation or next purchase. It cannot establish that higher-income owners are holding Category B vehicles or that a particular policy caused the month’s movement.
A simplified illustration
If a hypothetical twelve-month effective total is 10,000, its 25% quarterly component is 2,500 before subsequent allocations and adjustments. Replacing one month in that rolling window changes the base only by the difference between the incoming and outgoing months, not by the incoming month’s full total.
What to watch next
Compare the next official quota annex with the same calculation lines, and distinguish total quota from per-exercise quota. Review several months of deregistrations before describing a trend.
For an owner approaching expiry, the immediate inputs are the actual PQP, vehicle condition and replacement cost. An unsupported projection that future deregistrations will produce a particular COE price is not a sound basis for missing a renewal deadline.
Sources and review date
Reviewed on 13 September 2026. Historical results retain their exercise dates; worked budgets are assumptions, not quotations.