Monthly Deregistration Trends: March 2026

Vehicle deregistrations are the primary driver of COE supply in Singapore. Every vehicle that leaves the register creates a future COE certificate, feeding into the quarterly quota formula. In this monthly report, we examine March 2026 deregistration data in detail, explore the category-level breakdown, and consider the implications for Q3 2026 quotas.

March 2026 Deregistration Summary

March 2026 saw 3,210 total vehicle deregistrations, a modest increase from February's 2,960 and roughly flat compared to March 2025. The month-on-month increase is typical — February deregistration figures are usually depressed due to the shorter month and Chinese New Year disruptions, when LTA processing slows.

Category A: Small Car Deregistrations Pick Up

Category A deregistrations rose to 1,420, the highest monthly figure since November 2025. This uptick reflects the arrival of 2016-registered vehicles at their 10-year COE expiry. The 2016 cohort was a period of moderate COE premiums ($45,000-$55,000 for Category A), and many of these vehicles are now due for either renewal or deregistration.

The critical question is what proportion of these owners choose to renew. Our analysis suggests the renewal rate for Category A vehicles reaching their 10-year expiry is currently around 30-32%, meaning roughly 70% of expiring COEs result in deregistrations. This is higher than the overall renewal rate because Category A vehicles — typically smaller, mass-market models — have lower residual values and higher maintenance needs at the 10-year mark, making replacement more attractive than renewal.

Category B: Luxury Owners Hold On

Category B deregistrations declined slightly year-over-year to 890. The trend of Category B owners holding onto their vehicles longer continues. This reflects several factors unique to the premium segment: higher-quality vehicles that age better mechanically, owners who can afford PQP renewal costs, and the high cost of replacement when new Category B COE premiums exceed $125,000.

The lower deregistration rate in Category B has a self-reinforcing effect on the COE market. Fewer deregistrations mean fewer future certificates, which keeps quotas tight, which keeps premiums high, which encourages more owners to renew rather than replace — perpetuating the cycle.

Category C: Commercial Fleet Stability

Commercial vehicle deregistrations were 380, down 5% year-over-year. Fleet operators tend to maintain their vehicles for longer periods than private owners, particularly during high COE environments. A commercial vehicle that is well-maintained can remain productive well beyond its initial 10-year COE period, and fleet operators are adept at calculating the break-even between renewal costs and replacement costs.

Category D: Motorcycle Turnover Steady

Motorcycle deregistrations totalled 520, modestly above the year-ago level. The motorcycle fleet in Singapore has been growing in recent years, driven by delivery services, and the increasing fleet size naturally produces more deregistrations at the 10-year mark. However, the deregistration-to-registration ratio for motorcycles remains below 1.0, meaning the motorcycle fleet continues to grow — a trend that the COE quota formula struggles to accommodate given the small base.

Implications for Future Quotas

The Q2 2026 quota, already announced, incorporated deregistration data from October-December 2025. The March 2026 data we are discussing here will feed into the Q3 2026 quota calculation, along with April and May data.

Based on the first three months of 2026 (January through March), total deregistrations are running at approximately 9,500, an annualised pace of roughly 38,000. This is slightly below the 2025 full-year total of approximately 41,000, suggesting that Q3 2026 quotas could be marginally tighter than the current quarter.

However, we expect deregistration volumes to pick up in Q2 2026 as more 2016-cohort vehicles reach expiry. If April-May-June deregistrations track closer to 3,500 per month, the Q4 2026 quota could see meaningful improvement. Monitor these trends on our deregistrations dashboard.

COE Renewal vs Deregistration Decision

For vehicle owners approaching their 10-year COE expiry, the renewal-versus-deregistration decision hinges on several factors:

• Vehicle condition: A well-maintained vehicle with low mileage is a better renewal candidate than one with high maintenance costs.
• PQP level: The Prevailing Quota Premium determines the renewal cost. At current levels ($60,000-$80,000 for Categories A and B), renewal is typically cheaper than a new vehicle but still a significant outlay.
• PARF rebate: Vehicles deregistered within 10 years receive a PARF rebate. The rebate amount declines as the vehicle ages, so there is a financial incentive to deregister sooner rather than later if you are planning to replace the vehicle. Use our PARF Rebate Calculator to estimate your rebate.
• New vehicle costs: When total new vehicle costs (including COE) are high, renewal becomes more attractive. The current high-premium environment has clearly shifted the balance toward renewal for many owners.

Frequently Asked Questions

Deregistrations from one quarter feed into the quota calculation for two quarters later. For example, Q1 2026 deregistrations will primarily affect Q3 2026 quotas. Higher deregistrations mean more certificates available in future bidding exercises, which tends to moderate premiums. Lower deregistrations tighten supply.

The primary reason is the high cost of replacement. With COE premiums well above $90,000 for cars, many owners find it more economical to renew their existing COE at the PQP rather than purchase a new vehicle. This rational behaviour reduces deregistrations and, paradoxically, keeps future supply tight — creating a cycle that sustains high premiums.

LTA publishes monthly registration and deregistration statistics. We aggregate and visualise this data on our deregistrations trends page, with breakdowns by category and historical comparisons.