COE Price History: 30 Years of Data (1990-2026)
The Certificate of Entitlement system was introduced in 1990 as a market-based mechanism to manage Singapore's vehicle population. Since then, COE premiums have been on a roller coaster — from single-digit prices in the system's infancy to six-figure sums in the 2020s. This historical overview traces the major cycles, identifies the key inflection points, and places the current market in its long-term context.
The Major COE Cycles
1990-1994: The Wild Early Years
When the COE system launched in May 1990, premiums for small cars started at just $2. Yes, two dollars. The system was new, demand was uncertain, and bidders were cautious. Within months, premiums began rising as the market found its footing. By 1994, Category A premiums had surged past $60,000 as speculation and economic boom conditions drove frenzied bidding. This first cycle established that COE premiums could be extremely volatile.
1995-1998: The Asian Financial Crisis Crash
The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis devastated demand. COE premiums collapsed from their mid-1990s highs to below $10,000 for Category A by 1998. The crisis demonstrated that COE prices are deeply cyclical and closely linked to economic confidence. For buyers who had purchased at 1994 peaks, the subsequent crash represented a painful lesson in market timing.
1999-2008: The Long Recovery
The post-crisis decade saw a gradual recovery. Premiums fluctuated between $10,000 and $25,000 for most of this period, with occasional spikes. The introduction of the current five-category system in 1999 brought structural changes. The SARS outbreak in 2003 caused a brief dip, and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 triggered another sharp decline. But the overall trajectory was upward, reflecting Singapore's growing wealth and vehicle demand.
2009-2013: The Great Inflation
The post-GFC recovery was supercharged by ultra-low interest rates and strong economic growth. COE premiums entered a historic bull run, with Category A surging from $5,000 in 2009 to over $90,000 by 2013. The government responded with several policy interventions, including reducing the vehicle growth rate and tightening loan regulations. These measures eventually cooled the market, but not before premiums had reached levels that shocked the public.
2014-2020: Correction and Stabilisation
A massive wave of deregistrations (from the large 2004-2007 registration cohort) flooded the market with supply from 2014 onwards. Premiums dropped sharply, with Category A falling below $30,000 by 2017 and touching $23,000 in early 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic initially caused a further dip but then triggered a supply disruption as deregistrations slowed during lockdown periods.
2021-2023: The Pandemic Surge to All-Time Highs
The post-pandemic period produced the most dramatic COE surge in history. Pent-up demand, supply chain disruptions reducing deregistrations, ultra-low interest rates, and work-from-home-driven lifestyle changes created a perfect storm. Category A premiums rocketed from $45,000 in early 2021 to over $110,000 in late 2023 — an all-time record. Category E touched $152,000.
2024-2026: The New Plateau
Premiums have gradually retreated from the 2023 peaks but remain at historically elevated levels. Category A has stabilised in the $88,000-$100,000 range, suggesting a new structural floor that reflects the permanently tighter supply environment (0% vehicle growth rate) and the growing demand from EV adoption.
All-Time Records
| Record | Category | Premium | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| All-time high (any category) | Cat E | $152,001 | November 2023 |
| All-time high (Cat A) | Cat A | $112,001 | October 2023 |
| All-time high (Cat B) | Cat B | $145,001 | November 2023 |
| All-time low (after 1990) | Cat A | $2 | May 1990 |
Lessons from History
- COE is cyclical: Every major surge has been followed by a correction, and every crash has been followed by a recovery. The question is always about timing, not direction.
- Policy changes matter most: The biggest inflection points have been driven by government policy — vehicle growth rate changes, loan restrictions, quota formula adjustments — rather than purely market forces.
- Economic cycles amplify volatility: Recessions and booms amplify COE movements beyond what supply and demand fundamentals alone would dictate.
- Structural floors rise over time: Each successive cycle has produced higher lows. The floor that was $10,000 in the 2000s became $23,000 in the 2010s and appears to be $85,000-$90,000 in the 2020s, reflecting rising incomes, tighter policy, and growing vehicle demand.
Explore the full historical dataset on our COE trends page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will COE prices ever return to $30,000?Based on current structural conditions — 0% vehicle growth rate, EV demand growth, high PQP discouraging deregistrations — a return to $30,000 premiums would require a significant economic shock (deep recession), a major policy change (positive vehicle growth rate or category restructuring), or both. It is not impossible, but it is not our base case for the foreseeable future.
What was the longest period of low COE prices?The longest sustained period of relatively low premiums was from mid-2016 to early 2021, when Category A premiums mostly ranged between $23,000 and $40,000. This 4-5 year stretch was driven by a large deregistration wave from the 2006-2010 registration cohort. A similar extended low-premium period would require a comparable wave of deregistrations, which current projections do not support.
How does inflation affect COE prices?COE premiums are not directly adjusted for inflation. However, rising incomes increase the ability and willingness of buyers to bid higher, creating an indirect inflationary effect. When we adjust historical COE prices for inflation, the real (inflation-adjusted) cost of COE in 2023-2024 was still at or near all-time highs, suggesting that the current expensive era is not merely a nominal phenomenon.