Best and Worst Months to Bid for COE: A Historical Analysis

Does Timing Matter for COE Bidding?

Every prospective car buyer in Singapore eventually asks the same question: is there a best time of year to bid for COE? It is a reasonable question. If seasonal patterns exist — and they do — then timing your purchase could save thousands of dollars. We analysed COE results from 2002 to 2026 across all categories to quantify these patterns and separate genuine trends from noise. Explore the full dataset yourself on our historical trends page.

The short answer: yes, timing matters, but less than you might hope. Seasonal patterns typically account for a 5-10% swing around the prevailing price level. That is meaningful in dollar terms — $5,000 to $11,000 at current Cat A prices of $111,890 — but it is easily overwhelmed by structural factors like quota changes, policy shifts, or economic shocks. Here is what the data actually shows.

The February Effect: Chinese New Year Dampens Demand

February is historically the cheapest month to bid for COE, and the reason is cultural rather than structural. Chinese New Year typically falls in late January or February, and the festive period disrupts the car-buying cycle in several ways:

• Showroom traffic drops: Families are occupied with reunion dinners, visiting, and travel. Car shopping moves to the back burner for two to three weeks
• Dealer behaviour changes: Salespeople take leave, showrooms operate reduced hours, and the urgency to close deals diminishes during the festive period
• Superstition plays a role: Some buyers prefer not to make major financial commitments during the Lunar New Year period, waiting instead for an auspicious date after the festivities
• Cash flow considerations: The combination of angpow (red packet) giving, holiday spending, and year-end bonuses already allocated means some buyers have less liquidity in February

The data confirms this pattern. Looking at Category A from 2002 to 2026, February bidding exercises averaged 3.8% below the trailing six-month average. In dollar terms at today's Cat A prices, that equates to roughly $4,200 in savings compared to the six-month trend. The effect is even more pronounced in years when Chinese New Year falls in early February, giving the entire month a subdued character.

February 2026 provided a vivid illustration. Cat A closed at $106,501 and Cat B at $105,001 — both meaningfully below their March levels of $111,890 and $115,568 respectively. February 2026 also produced a genuine anomaly: Cat A exceeded Cat B for the first time in recorded history, a result of the EV-driven demand surge in the small-car category. But even with that unusual inversion, both categories were cheaper in February than in the months that followed.

The March Surge: Pent-Up Demand Floods In

If February is the best month, March is often the worst. The pattern is a direct consequence of the February lull — demand does not disappear during Chinese New Year, it merely defers. When showrooms reopen fully in late February, a backlog of buyers enters the market simultaneously.

March bidding exercises averaged 4.2% above the trailing six-month average for Cat A, making the February-to-March swing approximately 8 percentage points. At current prices, that translates to an $8,000-$9,000 difference between a February and a March bid for the same category.

Several factors amplify the March effect:

• Fresh quarterly quotas: Q2 quota allocations are announced in late March or early April, but Q1 quotas are still in effect for March exercises. If Q1 quotas were tight, March inherits that constraint while absorbing the post-CNY demand surge
• Dealer sales targets: Q1 targets create urgency. Dealers who lost selling time in February bid more aggressively in March to catch up
• New model launches: Manufacturers frequently time Singapore launches for March to capitalise on post-CNY buying enthusiasm. The Geneva Motor Show (historically in March) also generates interest in new models

The Mid-Year Lull: July and August

The second-best window for bidders falls in July and August. The mid-year period typically produces moderate premiums for a combination of reasons:

• School holidays: Families focus on travel and holiday activities rather than car purchases. The June school holidays extend their dampening effect into early July
• No seasonal catalyst: Unlike the March post-CNY rush or the year-end urgency of Q4, mid-year has no particular trigger for elevated demand
• Budget cycle timing: Government budget announcements (typically in February) have been absorbed by mid-year, reducing policy uncertainty

The mid-year discount is smaller than the February effect — typically 1-3% below the trailing average — but it is consistent enough across multiple years to be worth noting. For buyers with flexibility, July and August represent a secondary window of opportunity if February has already passed.

The September-October Crunch: Year-End Pressure

The most expensive period outside of March is September through October. Multiple demand drivers converge in this window:

• Annual sales targets: Dealers and manufacturers measure performance on a calendar-year basis. By September, any shortfall against annual targets becomes visible, and dealers bid aggressively to secure certificates for delivery before December 31
• Consumer urgency: Buyers who have been waiting all year feel mounting pressure to act before premiums potentially rise further. The fear of missing out accelerates decisions
• Year-end bonuses: The anticipation of December bonuses gives some buyers confidence to commit to a purchase in September or October, even if the cash has not yet arrived
• Fleet renewals: Companies often align vehicle fleet renewals with their fiscal year-end, creating institutional demand in Q4

September-October exercises averaged 3-5% above the trailing six-month average, making this period nearly as expensive as March. The October 2023 all-time high for Cat E ($152,000) fell squarely in this seasonal peak, though structural factors — not just seasonality — drove that extreme outcome.

November-December: The Mixed Signal

Conventional wisdom suggests that year-end should be expensive, but the data tells a more nuanced story. November and December premiums are often moderate — not cheap like February, but not as expensive as September-October either. The dynamics are complex:

• Quota exhaustion: By late Q4, the quarterly quota is largely consumed. The final exercises sometimes have reduced certificate availability, but bidding intensity also drops as dealers who needed certificates have already secured them
• Wait-and-see behaviour: Some buyers delay purchases to January, anticipating new-year model updates, fresh Q1 quotas, or potential policy changes effective from the new year
• Holiday distraction: Christmas and school holidays reduce showroom traffic, similar to but less pronounced than the CNY effect

The net result is that November-December premiums are typically within 1-2% of the annual average — neither a clear buying opportunity nor a period to avoid.

The COVID Exception: When Seasonality Disappears

It is essential to acknowledge that seasonal patterns can be completely overridden by extraordinary events. The most dramatic example is April-May 2020, when COE bidding was suspended entirely during Singapore's Circuit Breaker lockdown. There were simply no exercises to analyse. When bidding resumed in June 2020, the normal seasonal patterns were irrelevant — prices were driven entirely by the supply-demand dislocation caused by the lockdown.

Similarly, during the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, seasonal effects were overwhelmed by the collapse in consumer confidence. Cat A premiums fell from $12,000 in early 2008 to $2 (yes, two dollars) in early 2009. No amount of seasonal timing would have helped a buyer who purchased in January 2008.

These exceptions underscore a critical point: seasonal patterns are tendencies observed during normal market conditions. They are not laws of nature.

Important Caveats: What Overrides Seasonality

Before you plan your purchase calendar, understand the factors that can and regularly do override seasonal patterns:

Quarterly Quota Changes

A single large quota adjustment — say, a 15% increase or decrease — will overwhelm any seasonal effect. When LTA announced the injection of 20,000 additional COEs starting February 2025, the supply increase was far more significant than any monthly seasonal variation. Track quota changes on our Quota Watch page and weight them more heavily than seasonal patterns in your decision-making.

Policy Announcements

Government measures can shift demand overnight. Loan tenure restrictions, Additional Registration Fee (ARF) changes, carbon emission surcharges, or category restructuring announcements all move prices by more than seasonal patterns. The March 2026 category review announced by Transport Minister Jeffrey Siow is a current example — its outcome could reshape category pricing for years. Calculate the full cost impact of policy changes using our Total Cost Calculator.

Economic Conditions

Recessions, property market cycles, stock market performance, and employment trends all influence buyer confidence and willingness to spend on a car. A recession that hits in February will not produce cheap COEs because of CNY — it will produce cheap COEs because of the recession.

New Model Launches

A highly anticipated vehicle launch can spike demand in its category regardless of the month. The arrival of affordable Chinese EVs in Category A — BYD alone registered 2,183 units in Q1 2025 — has permanently elevated Cat A competition in a way that no seasonal pattern can offset.

Practical Timing Advice

Given all of the above, here is a pragmatic framework for timing your COE bid:

1. If you have full flexibility (3-6 months): Target February for your first attempt. If you fail or premiums are higher than expected, wait for the July-August window. Avoid March and September-October unless quota conditions are unusually favourable
2. If you have moderate flexibility (1-2 months): Check the bid ratio trends before each exercise. A bid ratio below 1.5 suggests manageable competition regardless of the month. Above 2.5 signals intense competition — consider waiting for the next exercise
3. If you need a car now: Seasonal timing is secondary. Set a strict budget ceiling, bid at that ceiling, and accept the outcome. Trying to time the market when you need a car immediately usually results in paying more, not less, because you end up chasing rising prices across multiple exercises
4. Monitor structural factors first: Check the quarterly quota numbers and recent bidding results before considering seasonal patterns. A favourable quota environment in an "expensive" month is better than a tight quota in a "cheap" month

The Bottom Line

Seasonal patterns in COE bidding are real and statistically significant, but they are a secondary factor. The primary drivers of COE prices are quota supply, government policy, and macroeconomic conditions. Think of seasonal timing as a tiebreaker: when all other factors are roughly equal, February and mid-year are better than March and September. But do not delay a purchase by six months solely to capture a 3-5% seasonal discount — the market could move 15% in either direction during that time.

Set up price alerts to be notified when premiums in your target category drop below your threshold, and use our historical trends page to put any individual exercise into its proper long-term context. The best time to bid is when your personal circumstances require a car and the price is within your budget — not when the calendar says so.