Compare COE Bidding Conditions
An unvalidated heuristic summary of observed prices, bids per certificate and quota. It does not predict premiums or identify an optimal time to bid.
This is data-driven analysis for informational purposes only — not financial advice. Always do your own research before bidding.
S$131,890
S$133,000
S$92,144
S$12,201
S$137,000
How this calculator works
This heuristic combines three observed factors. No score is assigned merely because of the calendar month. Weights are normalized to sum to one:
- Price Trend (41.2%)
- Bid Ratio (35.3%)
- Quota Supply (23.5%)
Price trend compares the latest three exercises with the previous three. The bid ratio is bids received divided by certificates available. Quota supply compares recent allocations. Lower past premiums, fewer bids per certificate and larger quotas receive positive scores; missing observations contribute zero.
A composite above 0.3 is labelled favorable, below −0.3 unfavorable, and otherwise neutral. These are unvalidated labels for the recorded observations. They do not predict the next premium, model individual bids, or identify an optimal bidding time. Compare your actual vehicle quote, reserve limit and alternatives before deciding.
What this calculator does not capture
- The weights and score thresholds are judgment-based and have not been statistically validated.
- Only recorded public observations are included; future demand and policy are not known.
- A favorable label does not establish affordability or imply that the next premium will fall.
- Financing, vehicle requirements, time constraints and other personal circumstances are not modeled.
Frequently asked questions
- How often is the Bid Advisor updated?
- Signals are recalculated after every bidding round, typically twice a month. The analysis uses the latest available results, bid ratios, and quota data from the results archive.
- Is the Bid Advisor financial advice?
- No. The Bid Advisor is a data-driven tool for informational purposes only. It analyses publicly available data to highlight market conditions, but COE outcomes depend on many factors that cannot be predicted with certainty. Always do your own research before making a bidding decision.
- What does a "Favorable" signal mean?
- It means the selected historical price, bids-per-certificate and quota observations receive a score above 0.3 under this heuristic. These thresholds and weights have not been statistically validated. The label does not predict a lower future premium or establish that you should bid.
- Why might all categories show the same signal?
- Each category is scored using the same thresholds. Different observations may fall into the same label band. This does not establish a common cause or predict that the categories will move together.