How COE Quota Is Calculated: Follow the Official Allocation
Trace replacement deregistrations, Category E contributions, growth and adjustments through the May–July 2026 quota calculation.
The quarterly COE allocation is a calculation with several components. It is not simply the number of cars expected to turn ten next quarter, nor a direct one-for-one conversion of last month’s deregistrations.
Begin with the replacement window
For May–July 2026, the official annex uses April 2025–March 2026 deregistrations. It adjusts for identified guaranteed deregistrations and takes 25% of the effective twelve-month total. This rolling method smooths the replacement input across allocation periods.
In a simplified example, 10,000 effective deregistrations produce a quarterly component of 2,500 before the remaining allocation steps. This is an illustration of the proportion, not a real category quota.
Follow one category through the annex
For Category A, the annex shows 30,027 deregistrations and a deduction of 2,426 identified guaranteed deregistrations. Its published 25% component is 6,900. After the 690 contribution to E, the replacement component is 6,210. Adjustments add 1,224, producing the final A allocation of 7,434.
Use the published whole-certificate amounts when reconciling the table. Intermediate fractional arithmetic and allocation rounding should not be mistaken for a different official quota.
Category E and other adjustments
E receives 10% contributions from the relevant A, B and C replacement components; D no longer contributes. The annex separately accounts for taxi changes, Early Turnover Scheme adjustments, expired TCOEs, redistribution and injections.
Identified guaranteed deregistrations are adjusted so certificates brought forward are not counted again when the vehicles actually leave the register.
Population growth is a separate line
The stated growth rates are 0% for A, B and D and 0.25% for C through 31 January 2028. Replacement quota still exists under zero growth. The growth rate should not be described as the percentage change in the next premium or total quarterly supply.
From allocation to an exercise
The May–July total is 19,052 across categories and exercises. Check the quota announced for the particular exercise you are analysing, including any applicable unused-quota treatment.
The formula helps explain supply. It does not reveal the next reserve-price distribution or guarantee lower premiums. Any forecast must make demand and future adjustment assumptions explicit.
Sources and review date
Reviewed on 13 September 2026. Historical results retain their exercise dates; worked budgets are assumptions, not quotations.