Q1 2026 COE Category Spreads: Convergence, Inversion and Limits
Compare paired category premiums across the first quarter and distinguish certificate-price gaps from differences in complete car packages.
The gap between Category B and A narrowed sharply between the first January and second March exercises. February also included an inversion. A description of uninterrupted structural widening does not match these results.
| Difference | Paired exercises | Mean difference |
|---|---|---|
| B minus A | 6 | S$6,959 |
| E minus B | 6 | S$3,099 |
| E minus A | 6 | S$10,058 |
| A minus C | 6 | S$31,656 |
Only exercises containing both categories are paired. These differences describe prices; they do not identify bidder motives or prove that either category is undervalued.
Three observations explain the change
In January’s first exercise, B exceeded A by $17,091 ($119,100 minus $102,009). In February’s second, B was $1,500 below A ($105,001 minus $106,501). By March’s second, B exceeded A by $3,678 ($115,568 minus $111,890).
The opening-to-closing B–A gap narrowed by $13,413. That is different from the mean gap across all paired exercises, shown in the table. State which measure you use.
Pair the same exercise
Subtracting one category’s March result from another category’s February result mixes timing with category differences. A reproducible spread pairs year, month and round, and excludes a pair if either result is missing.
Interpret Category E separately
E can be used for eligible vehicles other than motorcycles. Its flexibility before registration can matter to a buyer or trader, but does not prove that any particular premium is fair value or an investment opportunity.
Once a car is registered, renewal follows its underlying category. A Category E certificate does not create a permanent right to move the entitlement freely between vehicles.
A smaller spread is not an equal-price car offer
Two packages can have different vehicle costs, ARF, emissions adjustments, equipment, finance conditions and warranties. Compare their complete prices and ongoing expenses rather than upgrading solely because the certificate gap is small.
Keep causes separate from observations
Paired premiums do not reveal wealth, brand preference or the share of EV bidders in each category. A claim that a spread reflects those motives requires additional evidence. This review establishes the arithmetic, not a causal decomposition or a recommendation to buy the supposedly undervalued category.
Sources and review date
Reviewed on 13 September 2026. Historical results retain their exercise dates; worked budgets are assumptions, not quotations.